Showing posts with label business excel. Show all posts
Showing posts with label business excel. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 3, 2014

Interactive Graph of Normal Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

normal distribution, graph, pdf, cdf, excel graph, statistics, excel, excel 2010, excel 2103 (Click On Image To See a Larger Version)

This is one of the following eleven articles on creating user-interactive graphs of statistical distributions in Excel

Interactive Statistical Distribution Graph in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

Interactive Graph of the Normal Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

Interactive Graph of the Chi-Square Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

Interactive Graph of the t-Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

Interactive Graph of the t-Distribution’s PDF in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

Interactive Graph of the t-Distribution’s CDF in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

Interactive Graph of the Binomial Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

Interactive Graph of the Exponential Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

Interactive Graph of the Beta Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

Interactive Graph of the Gamma Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

Interactive Graph of the Poisson Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

Overview of the Normal

Distribution

The normal distribution is a family of continuous probability distributions. This is evidenced by the smooth shape of the above graph of a normal distribution’s PDF (Probability Density Function) curve.

The normal distribution is a family of distributions with each unique normal distribution being fully described by its two parameters µ (“mu,” population mean) and s (“sigma,” population standard deviation). The population mean, µ, is a location parameter and the population standard deviation, s, is a scale parameter.

When two different normal distribution curves are plotted on the same set of horizontal and vertical axes, the means determine how shifted one curve is to the left of right of the other curve. The standard deviations detail how much wider or more narrow the first normal curve is than to the second.

The normal distribution is a very commonly occurring continuous probability distribution and is often used in natural and social sciences. The bell-shaped normal distribution curve describes the distribution of many natural phenomena such as the heights or weights of males or females. The normal distribution is also used to describe variables that are the sum of many independent processes and variables whose distributions are not known.

The normal distribution is sometimes referred to as the Gaussian distribution.

 

Normal Distribution Properties

The normal distribution’s probability density function, f(x), has the following properties:

1) It is symmetric about its population mean µ. Half of the values of a normally-distributed population will be less than (to the left of) the population mean and the other half of the population’s value will be greater than (to the right of) the population mean.

2) Its mode and median are equal to the population mean µ.

3) It is unimodal. This means that it has only one peak, i.e., only one point that is a local maximum.

4) The total area under the normal distribution’s PDF is equal to 1.

5) Each unique normal distribution curve is entirely defined by its two parameters population mean µ and population standard deviation s.

6) The density of the normal distribution’s PDF is the highest at its mean and always decreases as distance from the mean increases.

7) 50 percent of values of a normally-distributed population are less than the population mean and 50 percent of the values are greater than the mean.

8) Approximately 68 percent of the total area under the PDF curve resides within one s from the mean, approximately 95 percent of the total resides within two ss, and approximately 99.7 percent of the total area resides within three ss from the mean. This is sometimes known as the Empirical Rule or the 68-95-99.7 Rule.

9) f(x) is infinitely differentiable.

10) The first derivative of f(x) is positive for all x < µ and negative for all x > µ.

11) The second derivative of f(x) has two inflection points which are located one population standard deviation above and below the population mean. These inflection points are located at x = µ ± s. An inflection point occurs at the point that the 2nd derivative equals zero and changes sign as x continues.

12) It is log-concave. A function f(x) is log-concave if its natural log, ln[f(x)], is concave. A log-concave function does not have multiple separate maxima and its tails are not “too thick.”

 

Graphing the Distribution’s PDF –

Probability Density Function

 

Step 1 – Create a Count

The Count becomes the basis for the X and Y values of each data point on the graph. This count will contain 100 points that count from 0 to 100 in increments 1. There are many ways to create a count. This count uses the method ROW() – ROW($B) to increment each cell value in the column by 1.

normal distribution, graph, pdf, cdf, excel graph, statistics, excel, excel 2010, excel 2103
(Click On Image To See a Larger Version)

 

Step 2 – Create the X Values

The X values for each data point are created. The X-Axis expander and X-Axis shifter values are part of this calculation because the location and width of the normal distribution’s PDF graph varies significantly when its population mean µ and population standard deviation σ parameters change. The X axis must be properly sized to enable the normal distribution’s PDF curve to be fully visible and fully expanded in the graph.

normal distribution, graph, pdf, cdf, excel graph, statistics, excel, excel 2010, excel 2103
(Click On Image To See a Larger Version)

 

Step 3 – Create the Y Values

One Y value is created for each increment of the Count. The Y value of each data point is its PDF value. The normal distribution’s PDF value requires the X value and its two parameters, the population mean µ and population standard deviation σ. The X axis often has to be shifted and expanded in order to view the entire PDF curve fully in a single graph.

normal distribution, graph, pdf, cdf, excel graph, statistics, excel, excel 2010, excel 2103
(Click On Image To See a Larger Version)

The following Excel-generated graph shows the normal distribution’s PDF (Probability Density Function) for as the X value goes from -5 to 12 with population mean µ = 3 and population standard deviation σ = 2.

The PDF value of a statistical distribution (the Y value) at a specific X value equals the probability that the value of a random sample will be equal to that X value if the population of data values from which the sample was taken is distributed according the stated distribution. The CDF value of a statistical distribution (the Y value) at a specific X value equals the probability that the value of a random sample will be up to that X value.

normal distribution, graph, pdf, cdf, excel graph, statistics, excel, excel 2010, excel 2103
(Click On Image To See a Larger Version)

The process of creating an Excel area chart and connecting the user inputs to the chart is shown in detail in the section of this manual that provides instructions on how to create an interactive normal distribution PDF curve with outer tails.

 

Effects of Changing the Mean and Standard Deviation

Increasing the population mean shifts the normal distribution’s PDF curve to the right. Decreasing the population standard deviation decreases the width of the curve.

normal distribution, graph, pdf, cdf, excel graph, statistics, excel, excel 2010, excel 2103
(Click On Image To See a Larger Version)

 

Effects of Changing the X-Axis Expander and Shifter

These tools do not change the PDF curve. They change the vantage point so the PDF curve can be viewed more clearly.

normal distribution, graph, pdf, cdf, excel graph, statistics, excel, excel 2010, excel 2103
(Click On Image To See a Larger Version)

normal distribution, graph, pdf, cdf, excel graph, statistics, excel, excel 2010, excel 2103
(Click On Image To See a Larger Version)

normal distribution, graph, pdf, cdf, excel graph, statistics, excel, excel 2010, excel 2103
(Click On Image To See a Larger Version)

 

Graphing the Normal Distribution’s

CDF – Cumulative Distribution

Function

The following Excel-generated graph shows the normal distribution’s CDF (Cumulative Distribution Function) for µ = 3 and σ = 2 as the X value goes from -5 to 12.

The CDF value of a statistical distribution (the Y value) at a specific X value equals the probability that the value of a random sample will be up to that X value if the population of data values from which the sample was taken is distributed according the stated distribution. The PDF value of a statistical distribution (the Y value) at a specific X value equals the probability that the value of a random sample will be equal to that X value.

normal distribution, graph, pdf, cdf, excel graph, statistics, excel, excel 2010, excel 2103
(Click On Image To See a Larger Version)

 

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Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Excel Model Building - Experts vs. Non-Experts

Excel Model Building -

Experts vs. Non-experts



What makes a great Excel modeler? There actually are identifiable skills and problem-solving tendencies that expert Excel modelers seem to possess in greater abundance than the average Excel modeler.

A brief study was done by Dartmouth Professors Stephen Powell and Kenneth Baker, authors of the best book ever written about quantitative Excel modeling: Management Science – The Art of Modeling With Spreadsheets. (If you are interested, I've reviewed the book on this page. It is the 4th Internet marketing book review on the web page)

Professors Powell and Baker audiotaped 28 of their MBA students work through 4 ill-structured modeling problems. The focus of the test was not to observe the students create a spreadsheet for a well-defined problem but rather to craft the right Excel modeling approach to a problem that had not been well thought-out and structured in advance. This situation much more closely approximates the real life faced by a consultant or business decision-maker.

Major Differences Between Expert and Non-Expert Model Builders

Professors Powell and Baker listed the following conclusions of their study in their well-respected book:

1) The expert model builders would build the model first and then ask for data later. Non-experts would immediately focus on the data. Non-experts appeared to exhibit a much stronger reliance for the data at hand.

2) Experts would create and evaluate a number of solutions before narrowing their efforts on just one. Non-experts tended to select an overall direction after significantly less evaluation or creation of other alternatives. Non-experts sometimes had a tendency to try and avoid the model-building process altogether and propose solutions such as: “Let’s call an expert” or “Let’s do market research.”

3) Expert modelers as a whole are stronger in math than non-experts.

4) Expert modelers would think more in terms of variables and relationships in the early stages of problem solving. Non-experts would often use concrete numbers right away.

5) Experts tended to stop much more often during the model-building process and re-evaluate their current progress and direction.

6) Experts initially framed problems in ways that could be translated to a model quickly. Non-experts tended to be much more unstructured in their early attempts to create an overall plan. Their attempts at early organization seemed to resemble brainstorming sessions.

7) Expert model builders solved the problems by working backward from what the solution was supposed to provide. Non-experts did not use this approach as much.

Conclusions

Practical Excel model-building advice based upon the modeling approaches of experts would be the following:

1) Don’t expect data to answer the problem.

2) Don’t be in a rush to find the quick answer.

3) Try to see the forest through the trees. Always keep in focus what the overall goal of the model is.

4) Try to create and evaluate a number of different approaches before deciding on the overall direction that your model will take.

5) Regularly re-evaluate your progress toward your model’s completion and the direction that you are currently taking.


Here are some other blog entries related to this article:

Correctable Reasons Why Your Data Is Not Normally Distributed

22 Big Statistical Mistakes You Don't Want To Make

Logistic Regression in Excel To Predict If a Prospect Will Buy

How To Build a Better Split-Tester in Excel Than the Google Web Site Optimizer

Using the Normal Distribution in Excel To Find Your Daily Range of Sales

If you would like to create a link to this blog article, here is the link to copy for your convenience: Modeling in Excel - Experts vs. Non-experts

Excel Model Building - Experts vs. Non-Experts
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