# Excel's Most Basic

Forecasting Tool -

The Simple Moving

Average

Forecasting involves prediction based upon events that have already occurred. Although it is impossible to guarantee an outcome, prediction is necessary to allow for planning. Howard H. Stevenson writes that prediction in business "... is at least two things: Important and hard."

The ability to forecast sales and marketing data is an essential prerequisite of marketing intelligence. Marketing analytics correctly adapted for demand forecasting provides a solid pillar for any effective marketing plan and strategy.

The statistical method that will be discussed in this and the next few article called time series forecasting. a time series is a sequence of data points, measured typically at successive times spaced at uniform time intervals.

The most basic forecasting technique is called the Simple Moving Average. This article will explain how to implement this forecasting method. This article will also show how to use a technique called the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) evaluate the accuracy of the Simple Moving Average.

**Simple Moving Average**

The Simple Moving Average provides an expected result for a new period based upon the average of the results of the n previous periods. The following formula shows how to calculate the Simple Moving Average for n previous periods is:

Forecasted Result for New Period = Average of all results for the most recent n periods

= ( Σ Result for each of previous n periods ) / n

For example, For the following data:

**Year**

**Actual**

1 4000

2 5000

3 5000

4 5500

5 6000

6 5000

7 6000

8 6570

Here are the calculations for a 2-year Simple Moving Average:

**Click On Image to See Larger Version****MAD – Mean Absolute Deviation**

MAD is a technique used to gauge the accuracy of a forecasting technique. The MAD is the average absolute error.

The larger the MAD, the less accurate the forecasting technique is. The MAD for n forecasted periods is the following:

MAD for n periods = ( Σ Actual result – Forecasted Result for each period ) / n

The MAD for the above 6 forecasted period would be calculated as follows:

**Click On Image to See Larger Version**We can see that the MAD using the Simple 2-Year Moving Average is 678. That means that this forecasting method had an average error of 678 for each forecasted period.

Let’s calculate the MAD using the Simple 3-Year Moving Average to determine whether the 3-Year Moving Average provides a more accurate forecast for this data than the 2-Year Moving Average.

Here are the calculations for a 3-year Simple Moving Average:

**Click On Image to See Larger Version**The MAD for the above 5 forecasted period would be calculated as follows:

**Click On Image to See Larger Version**We can see that the MAD using the Simple 3-Year Moving Average is 714. That means that this forecasting method had an average error of 678 for each forecasted period.

Since the MAD for the Simple 2-Year Moving Average (678) is lower than the MAD for the Simple 3-Year Moving Average (714), we can state that the Simple 2-Year Moving Average has provided a more accurate forecast than the Simple Moving 3-Year Average.

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Excel's Most Basic Forecasting Tool - The Simple Moving Average

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**Excel Master Series Blog Directory**

Statistical Topics and Articles In Each Topic

- Histograms in Excel
- Bar Chart in Excel
- Combinations & Permutations in Excel
- Normal Distribution in Excel
- Overview of the Normal Distribution
- Normal Distribution’s PDF (Probability Density Function) in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Normal Distribution’s CDF (Cumulative Distribution Function) in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Solving Normal Distribution Problems in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Overview of the Standard Normal Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- An Important Difference Between the t and Normal Distribution Graphs
- The Empirical Rule and Chebyshev’s Theorem in Excel – Calculating How Much Data Is a Certain Distance From the Mean
- Demonstrating the Central Limit Theorem In Excel 2010 and Excel 2013 In An Easy-To-Understand Way

- t-Distribution in Excel
- Binomial Distribution in Excel
- z-Tests in Excel
- t-Tests in Excel
- Overview of t-Tests: Hypothesis Tests that Use the t-Distribution
- 1-Sample t-Tests in Excel
- Overview of the 1-Sample t-Test in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Excel Normality Testing For the 1-Sample t-Test in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- 1-Sample t-Test – Effect Size in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- 1-Sample t-Test Power With G*Power Utility
- Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test As a 1-Sample t-Test Alternative in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Sign Test As a 1-Sample t-Test Alternative in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

- 2-Independent-Sample Pooled t-Tests in Excel
- Overview of 2-Independent-Sample Pooled t-Test in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Excel Variance Tests: Levene’s, Brown-Forsythe, and F Test For 2-Sample Pooled t-Test in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Excel Normality Tests Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, and Shapiro Wilk Tests For Two-Sample Pooled t-Test
- Two-Independent-Sample Pooled t-Test - All Excel Calculations
- 2-Sample Pooled t-Test – Effect Size in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- 2-Sample Pooled t-Test Power With G*Power Utility
- Mann-Whitney U Test in Excel as 2-Sample Pooled t-Test Nonparametric Alternative in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- 2-Sample Pooled t-Test = Single-Factor ANOVA With 2 Sample Groups

- 2-Independent-Sample Unpooled t-Tests in Excel
- 2-Independent-Sample Unpooled t-Test in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Variance Tests: Levene’s Test, Brown-Forsythe Test, and F-Test in Excel For 2-Sample Unpooled t-Test
- Excel Normality Tests Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, and Shapiro-Wilk For 2-Sample Unpooled t-Test
- 2-Sample Unpooled t-Test Excel Calculations, Formulas, and Tools
- Effect Size for a 2-Independent-Sample Unpooled t-Test in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Test Power of a 2-Independent Sample Unpooled t-Test With G-Power Utility

- Paired (2-Sample Dependent) t-Tests in Excel
- Paired t-Test in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Excel Normality Testing of Paired t-Test Data
- Paired t-Test Excel Calculations, Formulas, and Tools
- Paired t-Test – Effect Size in Excel 2010, and Excel 2013
- Paired t-Test – Test Power With G-Power Utility
- Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test As a Paired t-Test Alternative
- Sign Test in Excel As A Paired t-Test Alternative

- Hypothesis Tests of Proportion in Excel
- Hypothesis Tests of Proportion Overview (Hypothesis Testing On Binomial Data)
- 1-Sample Hypothesis Test of Proportion in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- 2-Sample Pooled Hypothesis Test of Proportion in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- How To Build a Much More Useful Split-Tester in Excel Than Google's Website Optimizer

- Chi-Square Independence Tests in Excel
- Chi-Square Goodness-Of-Fit Tests in Excel
- F Tests in Excel
- Correlation in Excel
- Pearson Correlation in Excel
- Spearman Correlation in Excel
- Confidence Intervals in Excel
- Overview of z-Based Confidence Intervals of a Population Mean in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- t-Based Confidence Intervals of a Population Mean in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Minimum Sample Size to Limit the Size of a Confidence interval of a Population Mean
- Confidence Interval of Population Proportion in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Min Sample Size of Confidence Interval of Proportion in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

- Simple Linear Regression in Excel
- Overview of Simple Linear Regression in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Simple Linear Regression Example in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Residual Evaluation For Simple Regression in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Residual Normality Tests in Excel – Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test, Anderson-Darling Test, and Shapiro-Wilk Test For Simple Linear Regression
- Evaluation of Simple Regression Output For Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- All Calculations Performed By the Simple Regression Data Analysis Tool in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Prediction Interval of Simple Regression in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

- Multiple Linear Regression in Excel
- Basics of Multiple Regression in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Multiple Linear Regression Example in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Multiple Linear Regression’s Required Residual Assumptions
- Normality Testing of Residuals in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Evaluating the Excel Output of Multiple Regression
- Estimating the Prediction Interval of Multiple Regression in Excel
- Regression - How To Do Conjoint Analysis Using Dummy Variable Regression in Excel

- Logistic Regression in Excel
- Logistic Regression Overview
- Logistic Regression Performed in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- R Square For Logistic Regression Overview
- Excel R Square Tests: Nagelkerke, Cox and Snell, and Log-Linear Ratio in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Likelihood Ratio Is Better Than Wald Statistic To Determine if the Variable Coefficients Are Significant For Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Excel Classification Table: Logistic Regression’s Percentage Correct of Predicted Results in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Hosmer-Lemeshow Test in Excel – Logistic Regression Goodness-of-Fit Test in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

- Single-Factor ANOVA in Excel
- Overview of Single-Factor ANOVA
- Single-Factor ANOVA Example in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Shapiro-Wilk Normality Test in Excel For Each Single-Factor ANOVA Sample Group
- Kruskal-Wallis Test Alternative For Single Factor ANOVA in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Levene’s and Brown-Forsythe Tests in Excel For Single-Factor ANOVA Sample Group Variance Comparison
- Single-Factor ANOVA - All Excel Calculations
- Overview of Post-Hoc Testing For Single-Factor ANOVA
- Tukey-Kramer Post-Hoc Test in Excel For Single-Factor ANOVA
- Games-Howell Post-Hoc Test in Excel For Single-Factor ANOVA
- Overview of Effect Size For Single-Factor ANOVA
- ANOVA Effect Size Calculation Eta Squared (?2) in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- ANOVA Effect Size Calculation Psi (?) – RMSSE – in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- ANOVA Effect Size Calculation Omega Squared (?2) in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Power of Single-Factor ANOVA Test Using Free Utility G*Power
- Welch’s ANOVA Test in Excel Substitute For Single-Factor ANOVA When Sample Variances Are Not Similar
- Brown-Forsythe F-Test in Excel Substitute For Single-Factor ANOVA When Sample Variances Are Not Similar

- Two-Factor ANOVA With Replication in Excel
- Two-Factor ANOVA With Replication in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Variance Tests: Levene’s and Brown-Forsythe For 2-Factor ANOVA in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Shapiro-Wilk Normality Test in Excel For 2-Factor ANOVA With Replication
- 2-Factor ANOVA With Replication Effect Size in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Excel Post Hoc Tukey’s HSD Test For 2-Factor ANOVA With Replication
- 2-Factor ANOVA With Replication – Test Power With G-Power Utility
- Scheirer-Ray-Hare Test Alternative For 2-Factor ANOVA With Replication

- Two-Factor ANOVA Without Replication in Excel
- Creating Interactive Graphs of Statistical Distributions in Excel
- Interactive Statistical Distribution Graph in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the Normal Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the Chi-Square Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the t-Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the Binomial Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the Exponential Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the Beta Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the Gamma Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the Poisson Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

- Solving Problems With Other Distributions in Excel
- Solving Uniform Distribution Problems in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Solving Multinomial Distribution Problems in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Solving Exponential Distribution Problems in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Solving Beta Distribution Problems in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Solving Gamma Distribution Problems in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Solving Poisson Distribution Problems in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

- Optimization With Excel Solver
- Maximizing Lead Generation With Excel Solver
- Minimizing Cutting Stock Waste With Excel Solver
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- Chi-Square Population Variance Test in Excel
- Analyzing Data With Pivot Tables
- SEO Functions in Excel
- Time Series Analysis in Excel

**Excel Master Series Blog Directory**

Statistical Topics and Articles In Each Topic

- Histograms in Excel
- Bar Chart in Excel
- Combinations & Permutations in Excel
- Normal Distribution in Excel
- Overview of the Normal Distribution
- Normal Distribution’s PDF (Probability Density Function) in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Normal Distribution’s CDF (Cumulative Distribution Function) in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Solving Normal Distribution Problems in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Overview of the Standard Normal Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- An Important Difference Between the t and Normal Distribution Graphs
- The Empirical Rule and Chebyshev’s Theorem in Excel – Calculating How Much Data Is a Certain Distance From the Mean
- Demonstrating the Central Limit Theorem In Excel 2010 and Excel 2013 In An Easy-To-Understand Way

- t-Distribution in Excel
- Binomial Distribution in Excel
- z-Tests in Excel
- t-Tests in Excel
- Overview of t-Tests: Hypothesis Tests that Use the t-Distribution
- 1-Sample t-Tests in Excel
- Overview of the 1-Sample t-Test in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Excel Normality Testing For the 1-Sample t-Test in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- 1-Sample t-Test – Effect Size in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- 1-Sample t-Test Power With G*Power Utility
- Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test As a 1-Sample t-Test Alternative in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Sign Test As a 1-Sample t-Test Alternative in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

- 2-Independent-Sample Pooled t-Tests in Excel
- Overview of 2-Independent-Sample Pooled t-Test in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Excel Variance Tests: Levene’s, Brown-Forsythe, and F Test For 2-Sample Pooled t-Test in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Excel Normality Tests Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, and Shapiro Wilk Tests For Two-Sample Pooled t-Test
- Two-Independent-Sample Pooled t-Test - All Excel Calculations
- 2-Sample Pooled t-Test – Effect Size in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- 2-Sample Pooled t-Test Power With G*Power Utility
- Mann-Whitney U Test in Excel as 2-Sample Pooled t-Test Nonparametric Alternative in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- 2-Sample Pooled t-Test = Single-Factor ANOVA With 2 Sample Groups

- 2-Independent-Sample Unpooled t-Tests in Excel
- 2-Independent-Sample Unpooled t-Test in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Variance Tests: Levene’s Test, Brown-Forsythe Test, and F-Test in Excel For 2-Sample Unpooled t-Test
- Excel Normality Tests Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, and Shapiro-Wilk For 2-Sample Unpooled t-Test
- 2-Sample Unpooled t-Test Excel Calculations, Formulas, and Tools
- Effect Size for a 2-Independent-Sample Unpooled t-Test in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Test Power of a 2-Independent Sample Unpooled t-Test With G-Power Utility

- Paired (2-Sample Dependent) t-Tests in Excel
- Paired t-Test in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Excel Normality Testing of Paired t-Test Data
- Paired t-Test Excel Calculations, Formulas, and Tools
- Paired t-Test – Effect Size in Excel 2010, and Excel 2013
- Paired t-Test – Test Power With G-Power Utility
- Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test As a Paired t-Test Alternative
- Sign Test in Excel As A Paired t-Test Alternative

- Hypothesis Tests of Proportion in Excel
- Hypothesis Tests of Proportion Overview (Hypothesis Testing On Binomial Data)
- 1-Sample Hypothesis Test of Proportion in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- 2-Sample Pooled Hypothesis Test of Proportion in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- How To Build a Much More Useful Split-Tester in Excel Than Google's Website Optimizer

- Chi-Square Independence Tests in Excel
- Chi-Square Goodness-Of-Fit Tests in Excel
- F Tests in Excel
- Correlation in Excel
- Pearson Correlation in Excel
- Spearman Correlation in Excel
- Confidence Intervals in Excel
- Overview of z-Based Confidence Intervals of a Population Mean in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- t-Based Confidence Intervals of a Population Mean in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Minimum Sample Size to Limit the Size of a Confidence interval of a Population Mean
- Confidence Interval of Population Proportion in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Min Sample Size of Confidence Interval of Proportion in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

- Simple Linear Regression in Excel
- Overview of Simple Linear Regression in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Simple Linear Regression Example in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Residual Evaluation For Simple Regression in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Residual Normality Tests in Excel – Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test, Anderson-Darling Test, and Shapiro-Wilk Test For Simple Linear Regression
- Evaluation of Simple Regression Output For Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- All Calculations Performed By the Simple Regression Data Analysis Tool in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Prediction Interval of Simple Regression in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

- Multiple Linear Regression in Excel
- Basics of Multiple Regression in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Multiple Linear Regression Example in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Multiple Linear Regression’s Required Residual Assumptions
- Normality Testing of Residuals in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Evaluating the Excel Output of Multiple Regression
- Estimating the Prediction Interval of Multiple Regression in Excel
- Regression - How To Do Conjoint Analysis Using Dummy Variable Regression in Excel

- Logistic Regression in Excel
- Logistic Regression Overview
- Logistic Regression Performed in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- R Square For Logistic Regression Overview
- Excel R Square Tests: Nagelkerke, Cox and Snell, and Log-Linear Ratio in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Likelihood Ratio Is Better Than Wald Statistic To Determine if the Variable Coefficients Are Significant For Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Excel Classification Table: Logistic Regression’s Percentage Correct of Predicted Results in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Hosmer-Lemeshow Test in Excel – Logistic Regression Goodness-of-Fit Test in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

- Single-Factor ANOVA in Excel
- Overview of Single-Factor ANOVA
- Single-Factor ANOVA Example in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Shapiro-Wilk Normality Test in Excel For Each Single-Factor ANOVA Sample Group
- Kruskal-Wallis Test Alternative For Single Factor ANOVA in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Levene’s and Brown-Forsythe Tests in Excel For Single-Factor ANOVA Sample Group Variance Comparison
- Single-Factor ANOVA - All Excel Calculations
- Overview of Post-Hoc Testing For Single-Factor ANOVA
- Tukey-Kramer Post-Hoc Test in Excel For Single-Factor ANOVA
- Games-Howell Post-Hoc Test in Excel For Single-Factor ANOVA
- Overview of Effect Size For Single-Factor ANOVA
- ANOVA Effect Size Calculation Eta Squared (?2) in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- ANOVA Effect Size Calculation Psi (?) – RMSSE – in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- ANOVA Effect Size Calculation Omega Squared (?2) in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Power of Single-Factor ANOVA Test Using Free Utility G*Power
- Welch’s ANOVA Test in Excel Substitute For Single-Factor ANOVA When Sample Variances Are Not Similar
- Brown-Forsythe F-Test in Excel Substitute For Single-Factor ANOVA When Sample Variances Are Not Similar

- Two-Factor ANOVA With Replication in Excel
- Two-Factor ANOVA With Replication in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Variance Tests: Levene’s and Brown-Forsythe For 2-Factor ANOVA in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Shapiro-Wilk Normality Test in Excel For 2-Factor ANOVA With Replication
- 2-Factor ANOVA With Replication Effect Size in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Excel Post Hoc Tukey’s HSD Test For 2-Factor ANOVA With Replication
- 2-Factor ANOVA With Replication – Test Power With G-Power Utility
- Scheirer-Ray-Hare Test Alternative For 2-Factor ANOVA With Replication

- Two-Factor ANOVA Without Replication in Excel
- Creating Interactive Graphs of Statistical Distributions in Excel
- Interactive Statistical Distribution Graph in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the Normal Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the Chi-Square Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the t-Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the Binomial Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the Exponential Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the Beta Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the Gamma Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the Poisson Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

- Solving Problems With Other Distributions in Excel
- Solving Uniform Distribution Problems in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Solving Multinomial Distribution Problems in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Solving Exponential Distribution Problems in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Solving Beta Distribution Problems in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Solving Gamma Distribution Problems in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Solving Poisson Distribution Problems in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

- Optimization With Excel Solver
- Maximizing Lead Generation With Excel Solver
- Minimizing Cutting Stock Waste With Excel Solver
- Optimal Investment Selection With Excel Solver
- Minimizing the Total Cost of Shipping From Multiple Points To Multiple Points With Excel Solver
- Knapsack Loading Problem in Excel Solver – Optimizing the Loading of a Limited Compartment
- Optimizing a Bond Portfolio With Excel Solver
- Travelling Salesman Problem in Excel Solver – Finding the Shortest Path To Reach All Customers

- Chi-Square Population Variance Test in Excel
- Analyzing Data With Pivot Tables
- SEO Functions in Excel
- Time Series Analysis in Excel

This Helped me a lot. I am working on a forecasting problem, and that is just what I needed

ReplyDeletethanks a lot!

ReplyDelete