This is one of the following seven articles on Logistic Regression in Excel

Logistic Regression in 7 Steps in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

R Square For Logistic Regression Overview

Excel R Square Tests: Nagelkerke, Cox and Snell, and Log-Linear Ratio in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

# Hosmer-Lemeshow Test in

Excel – Logistic Regression

Goodness-of-Fit Test

Another goodness-of-fit test commonly applied to logistic regression results is the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. This is a Chi-Square Goodness-Of-Fit test that quantifies how closely the predicted results match the actual observations. The test can be summarized as follows:

The total number of observations is split up into ten groups, called quintiles. The number of expected (predicted) positives and negatives in each quintile is compared with the observed number of positives and negatives in each quintile. The comparison of expected numbers and observed numbers produces a test statistic called the Chi-Square Statistic. A p Value is then derived which determines whether or not the model is a good fit.

A large p Value indicates that the difference between the number of observed and expected values is insignificant and the model is therefore considered valid. If the p Value is smaller than the specified level of significance (usually set at 0.05), the difference between the number of observed and expected values is statistically significant and the model is therefore considered *not *valid.

## Hosmer-Lemeshow Test in Excel

The data should be divided up into 10 equally-sized groups called quintiles or bins. Produce the following four counts of the data in each bin:

- Positive values observed in that bin

- Positive values expected in the bin

- Negative values observed in that bin

- Negative values expected in that bin

Arrange all of that data is done in the following diagram. Place the positive observed and expected values together on one side. Place the negative observed and expected values together on the other side. This is shown as follows:

*(Click On Image To See a Larger Version)*

A Chi-Square Goodness-Of-Fit test requires that the average number of values in each “Expected” bin is at least 5 and that every “Expected” bin has a value of at least 1.

This test suffers when the total number of observations is not large. Test creators David Hosmer and Stanley Lemeshow recommend that the minimum number of observations be at least 200.

This test is performed almost exactly like any other Chi-Square Goodness-Of-Fit test except the degrees of freedom equals the number of bins – 2. In this case, that would be as follows:

df = Number of bins – 2 = 10 – 2 = 8

Calculate the following for each positive observed/expected group and for each negative observed/expected group:

(Number observed – number expected)** ^{2}** / (Number of expected)

Calculate the test statistic called the Chi-Square Statistic, Χ** ^{2}**.

Χ** ^{2}** = ∑ (Number observed – number expected)

**/ (Number of expected)**

^{2}Χ** ^{2}** = 6.08418

This test statistic, Χ** ^{2}**, is distributed approximately according to the Chi-Square distribution with (Number of bins) – 2 degrees of freedom if the average number of values in each “Expected” bin is at least 5 and that every “Expected” bin has a value of at least 1.

A p Value can be derived from the Chi-Square Statistic as follows:

p Value = CHISQ.DIST.RT(Χ** ^{2}**,2) = CHISQ.DIST.RT(6.08418,2) = 0.63780

This p Value states that there is a 63.78 percent chance the difference between the observed and expected values is merely a random result and is not significant. The model is therefore considered to be a good model because the predicted values appear to be a good fit to the observed values. The Null Hypothesis stating that there is no difference between the Expected and Observed values cannot be rejected.

A small p Value would indicate that the model was not that good of a fit.

The p Value indicates the percentage of area under the Chi-Square distribution curve that is to the right of the Chi-Square Statistics of 6.08418. This is illustrated in the following diagram.

*(Click On Image To See a Larger Version)*

In Excel 2010 and later the formula CHIDIST(Χ^{2},df) can be replaced with the following formula: CHISQ.DIST.RT(Χ^{2},df)

**Excel Master Series Blog Directory**

Statistical Topics and Articles In Each Topic

- Histograms in Excel
- Bar Chart in Excel
- Combinations & Permutations in Excel
- Normal Distribution in Excel
- Overview of the Normal Distribution
- Normal Distribution’s PDF (Probability Density Function) in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Normal Distribution’s CDF (Cumulative Distribution Function) in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Solving Normal Distribution Problems in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Overview of the Standard Normal Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- An Important Difference Between the t and Normal Distribution Graphs
- The Empirical Rule and Chebyshev’s Theorem in Excel – Calculating How Much Data Is a Certain Distance From the Mean
- Demonstrating the Central Limit Theorem In Excel 2010 and Excel 2013 In An Easy-To-Understand Way

- t-Distribution in Excel
- Binomial Distribution in Excel
- z-Tests in Excel
- Overview of Hypothesis Tests Using the Normal Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- One-Sample z-Test in 4 Steps in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- 2-Sample Unpooled z-Test in 4 Steps in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Overview of the Paired (Two-Dependent-Sample) z-Test in 4 Steps in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

- t-Tests in Excel
- Overview of t-Tests: Hypothesis Tests that Use the t-Distribution
- 1-Sample t-Tests in Excel
- 1-Sample t-Test in 4 Steps in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Excel Normality Testing For the 1-Sample t-Test in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- 1-Sample t-Test – Effect Size in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- 1-Sample t-Test Power With G*Power Utility
- Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test in 8 Steps As a 1-Sample t-Test Alternative in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Sign Test As a 1-Sample t-Test Alternative in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

- 2-Independent-Sample Pooled t-Tests in Excel
- 2-Independent-Sample Pooled t-Test in 4 Steps in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Excel Variance Tests: Levene’s, Brown-Forsythe, and F Test For 2-Sample Pooled t-Test in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Excel Normality Tests Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, and Shapiro Wilk Tests For Two-Sample Pooled t-Test
- Two-Independent-Sample Pooled t-Test - All Excel Calculations
- 2- Sample Pooled t-Test – Effect Size in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- 2-Sample Pooled t-Test Power With G*Power Utility
- Mann-Whitney U Test in 12 Steps in Excel as 2-Sample Pooled t-Test Nonparametric Alternative in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- 2- Sample Pooled t-Test = Single-Factor ANOVA With 2 Sample Groups

- 2-Independent-Sample Unpooled t-Tests in Excel
- 2-Independent-Sample Unpooled t-Test in 4 Steps in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Variance Tests: Levene’s Test, Brown-Forsythe Test, and F-Test in Excel For 2-Sample Unpooled t-Test
- Excel Normality Tests Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, and Shapiro-Wilk For 2-Sample Unpooled t-Test
- 2-Sample Unpooled t-Test Excel Calculations, Formulas, and Tools
- Effect Size for a 2-Independent-Sample Unpooled t-Test in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Test Power of a 2-Independent Sample Unpooled t-Test With G-Power Utility

- Paired (2-Sample Dependent) t-Tests in Excel
- Paired t-Test in 4 Steps in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Excel Normality Testing of Paired t-Test Data
- Paired t-Test Excel Calculations, Formulas, and Tools
- Paired t-Test – Effect Size in Excel 2010, and Excel 2013
- Paired t-Test – Test Power With G-Power Utility
- Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test in 8 Steps As a Paired t-Test Alternative
- Sign Test in Excel As A Paired t-Test Alternative

- Hypothesis Tests of Proportion in Excel
- Hypothesis Tests of Proportion Overview (Hypothesis Testing On Binomial Data)
- 1-Sample Hypothesis Test of Proportion in 4 Steps in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- 2-Sample Pooled Hypothesis Test of Proportion in 4 Steps in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- How To Build a Much More Useful Split-Tester in Excel Than Google's Website Optimizer

- Chi-Square Independence Tests in Excel
- Chi-Square Goodness-Of-Fit Tests in Excel
- F Tests in Excel
- Correlation in Excel
- Pearson Correlation in Excel
- Spearman Correlation in Excel
- Confidence Intervals in Excel
- z-Based Confidence Intervals of a Population Mean in 2 Steps in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- t-Based Confidence Intervals of a Population Mean in 2 Steps in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Minimum Sample Size to Limit the Size of a Confidence interval of a Population Mean
- Confidence Interval of Population Proportion in 2 Steps in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Min Sample Size of Confidence Interval of Proportion in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

- Simple Linear Regression in Excel
- Overview of Simple Linear Regression in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Complete Simple Linear Regression Example in 7 Steps in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Residual Evaluation For Simple Regression in 8 Steps in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Residual Normality Tests in Excel – Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test, Anderson-Darling Test, and Shapiro-Wilk Test For Simple Linear Regression
- Evaluation of Simple Regression Output For Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- All Calculations Performed By the Simple Regression Data Analysis Tool in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Prediction Interval of Simple Regression in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

- Multiple Linear Regression in Excel
- Basics of Multiple Regression in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Complete Multiple Linear Regression Example in 6 Steps in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Multiple Linear Regression’s Required Residual Assumptions
- Normality Testing of Residuals in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Evaluating the Excel Output of Multiple Regression
- Estimating the Prediction Interval of Multiple Regression in Excel
- Regression - How To Do Conjoint Analysis Using Dummy Variable Regression in Excel

- Logistic Regression in Excel
- Logistic Regression Overview
- Logistic Regression in 6 Steps in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- R Square For Logistic Regression Overview
- Excel R Square Tests: Nagelkerke, Cox and Snell, and Log-Linear Ratio in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Likelihood Ratio Is Better Than Wald Statistic To Determine if the Variable Coefficients Are Significant For Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Excel Classification Table: Logistic Regression’s Percentage Correct of Predicted Results in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Hosmer- Lemeshow Test in Excel – Logistic Regression Goodness-of-Fit Test in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

- Single-Factor ANOVA in Excel
- Overview of Single-Factor ANOVA
- Single-Factor ANOVA in 5 Steps in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Shapiro-Wilk Normality Test in Excel For Each Single-Factor ANOVA Sample Group
- Kruskal-Wallis Test Alternative For Single Factor ANOVA in 7 Steps in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Levene’s and Brown-Forsythe Tests in Excel For Single-Factor ANOVA Sample Group Variance Comparison
- Single-Factor ANOVA - All Excel Calculations
- Overview of Post-Hoc Testing For Single-Factor ANOVA
- Tukey-Kramer Post-Hoc Test in Excel For Single-Factor ANOVA
- Games-Howell Post-Hoc Test in Excel For Single-Factor ANOVA
- Overview of Effect Size For Single-Factor ANOVA
- ANOVA Effect Size Calculation Eta Squared in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- ANOVA Effect Size Calculation Psi – RMSSE – in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- ANOVA Effect Size Calculation Omega Squared in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Power of Single-Factor ANOVA Test Using Free Utility G*Power
- Welch’s ANOVA Test in 8 Steps in Excel Substitute For Single-Factor ANOVA When Sample Variances Are Not Similar
- Brown-Forsythe F-Test in 4 Steps in Excel Substitute For Single-Factor ANOVA When Sample Variances Are Not Similar

- Two-Factor ANOVA With Replication in Excel
- Two-Factor ANOVA With Replication in 5 Steps in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Variance Tests: Levene’s and Brown-Forsythe For 2-Factor ANOVA in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Shapiro-Wilk Normality Test in Excel For 2-Factor ANOVA With Replication
- 2-Factor ANOVA With Replication Effect Size in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Excel Post Hoc Tukey’s HSD Test For 2-Factor ANOVA With Replication
- 2-Factor ANOVA With Replication – Test Power With G-Power Utility
- Scheirer-Ray-Hare Test Alternative For 2-Factor ANOVA With Replication

- Two-Factor ANOVA Without Replication in Excel
- Randomized Block Design ANOVA in Excel
- Repeated-Measures ANOVA in Excel
- Single-Factor Repeated-Measures ANOVA in 4 Steps in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Sphericity Testing in 9 Steps For Repeated Measures ANOVA in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Effect Size For Repeated-Measures ANOVA in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Friedman Test in 3 Steps For Repeated-Measures ANOVA in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

- ANCOVA in Excel
- Normality Testing in Excel
- Creating a Box Plot in 8 Steps in Excel
- Creating a Normal Probability Plot With Adjustable Confidence Interval Bands in 9 Steps in Excel With Formulas and a Bar Chart
- Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Test For Normality in 9 Steps in Excel
- Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, and Shapiro-Wilk Normality Tests in Excel

- Nonparametric Testing in Excel
- Mann-Whitney U Test in 12 Steps in Excel
- Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test in 8 Steps in Excel
- Sign Test in Excel
- Friedman Test in 3 Steps in Excel
- Scheirer-Ray-Hope Test in Excel
- Welch's ANOVA Test in 8 Steps Test in Excel
- Brown-Forsythe F Test in 4 Steps Test in Excel
- Levene's Test and Brown-Forsythe Variance Tests in Excel
- Chi-Square Independence Test in 7 Steps in Excel
- Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Tests in Excel
- Chi-Square Population Variance Test in Excel

- Post Hoc Testing in Excel
- Creating Interactive Graphs of Statistical Distributions in Excel
- Interactive Statistical Distribution Graph in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the Normal Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the Chi-Square Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the t-Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the t-Distribution’s PDF in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the t-Distribution’s CDF in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the Binomial Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the Exponential Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the Beta Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the Gamma Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Interactive Graph of the Poisson Distribution in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

- Solving Problems With Other Distributions in Excel
- Solving Uniform Distribution Problems in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Solving Multinomial Distribution Problems in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Solving Exponential Distribution Problems in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Solving Beta Distribution Problems in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Solving Gamma Distribution Problems in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013
- Solving Poisson Distribution Problems in Excel 2010 and Excel 2013

- Optimization With Excel Solver
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- Chi-Square Population Variance Test in Excel
- Analyzing Data With Pivot Tables and Pivot Charts
- SEO Functions in Excel
- Time Series Analysis in Excel
- VLOOKUP

Thanks . very helpful..was validating my model but wanted to use Excel.

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